危机中的意大利(2)11

作者:Jerry 来源:未知 2020-03-18

Italy's membership of the euro means that tackling the epidemic depends not just on ministers in Rome.

意大利的欧元区成员国身份意味着,应对这一流行病不仅取决于罗马的部长们。

The European Central Bank (ECB) could help lenders continue to provide liquidity.

欧洲央行(ECB)可以帮助放贷机构继续提供流动性。

As this newspaper went to press, the ECB was expected to loosen policy,

本刊付印时,欧洲央行有望放松政策,

either by cutting interest rates or offering banks cheap funding to lend to companies.

要么降息,要么向银行提供廉价资金,以便向企业放贷。

But, with its interest rates already at -0.5%, it cannot cut rates much further.

但是,由于它的利率已经降到了-0.5%,它不能再进一步降低利率了。

By contrast, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have cut rates by 0.5 percentage points.

相比之下,美联储和英国央行都将利率下调了0.5个百分点。

That means fiscal policy in Europe will have to do more work. But here Italy's public finances pose a complication.

这意味着欧洲的财政政策将不得不做幸运飞艇的工作。但在这方面,意大利的公共财政构成了一个难题。

Government debt is already high: in 2019 it exceeded 130% of GDP.

政府债务已经很高了:在2019年政府债务超过了GDP的130%。

The extra spending means that Italy seems likely to exceed the European Commission's deficit ceiling, of 3% of GDP, this year.

额外的支出意味着意大利今年的赤字很可能超过欧盟委员会的赤字上限,即GDP的3%。

In a sign that investors are fearing for the state of Italy's finances,

最近几周,十年期主权债券收益率上升,而德国国债的收益率则有所下降,

and perhaps nervous of a row with Brussels, yields on ten-year sovereign bonds have risen in recent weeks,

这迹象表明投资者担心意大利的财政状况,

while those on German bunds have fallen. But if Mr Conte does not borrow more now,

也可能是担心与欧盟发生争吵。贾瓦齐警告称,如果孔特现在不借幸运飞艇的款,

the consequence will be a more prolonged downturn—and therefore a higher debt-to-GDP ratio in the long term, warns Mr Giavazzi.

其后果将是更长期的经济衰退,因此从长远来看,债务占GDP的比例会更高。

That is perhaps why the European Commission says it will allow Italy to break its fiscal rules.

这也许就是为什么欧盟委员会说它将允许意大利打破其财政规则的原因。

The commission plans to issue new guidelines on spending next week.

委员会计划在下周发布新的支出指导方针。

Emmanuel Macron, France's president, wants bolder action.

法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙希望采取更大胆的行动。

He is pressing for the rules to be suspended altogether, and for member states to co-ordinate spending increases;

他正在施压暂停所有这些规定,并要求各成员国协调支出增长;

that could shore up confidence that Europe will do what it takes to cushion the economic blow from the virus.

这可能会提振人们的信心,即欧洲将采取一切措施来缓冲病毒对经济的冲击。

But Mr Macron's efforts have so far come to nothing,

但马克龙的努力到目前为止毫无成果,

because his counterparts in Germany and other northern countries prefer a wait and-see approach.

因为德国和其他北部国家的领导人们更喜欢静观其变。

As the epidemic spreads, though, the advantages of a decisive response will only become clearer.

然而,随着疫情的蔓延,果断应对的好处只会越来越明显。

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